financial statements and earnings reports are worthless

level up in the financial markets is one day understanding that everything is noise

s&p500 / xyz company earnings release next week? up or down? miss target? beat expectations?

who actually gives a fuck?

it has been years since i last read a financial statement

i have 8 digits invested in company stocks and i dont know there earnings or growth or whatever kanasai metrics

my returns have never been better

cos it all does not matter

if you so smart, you must be very rich right

anyway

everything comes down to 1 thing:

rate of money printing

when ppl learn about investing

at some point they also learn about inflation and why $1 is only worth $0.50 in 20 years

'ya the value of money goes down over time, EVERY ONE KNOWS'

but it is so funny that people all accept the effect, but do not accept the cause

WHY the value of money go down over time?

even with deflationary tech like digital media, technological improvement, increased productivity and experience, prices of goods go.... up over time?

digital distribution and reproduction cost is zero.

digital storage is essentially free.

automation has expanded productivity from 8 work hours a day to 24/7 continues production

human experience and knowledge means constant improvement

yet, the prices of the same goods and same services go up every year

corporate greed is a weak and bad answer

inflation of everything, including costs, is the more correct answer

and why does the price of basic cost inputs go up every year?

my answer is that money printing devalues everything in the economy, so prices of everything will always go up

electricity, water, bread, eggs, whatever

everything go up in price

not cos they are more valuable or higher quality

but cos there is more money that was printed 

everyone acknowledges inflation exist

yet so many people refuse to accept that government prints unknown amounts of currency with no oversight

we cannot stop the money printing

only can accept it and then decide a strategy that takes it into account

real estate? non divisible, not portable, regulatory risks

gold? portable in small amounts

stocks? only us large/mega caps. any other market or segment is an uneducated choice

private equity or debt? lol good joke

different assets have different 'absorption rate' of printed money

some are very bad at absorbing the money, so its price will not go up much

some are very good at absorbing the money so the price will go up alot, even faster than the rate that money is being printed, cos many other things are so weak at absorbing the money

the only real solution is considered a dirty word and lazy speculative investing

but it is actually the peak of clear and enlightened thinking

perfect proxy for tradfi views on btc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxelHBXOmOg

stable assets does not equal good assets

this is textbok midcurve tradfi thinking

cash also very stable what

using high volatility as a screening criteria is hypocritical

so there is a "correct" amount of volatility to take on for returns?

bullshit, he is just making new rules to already fit his own answer

even volatility adjust, btc has superior profile to stocks

toto and 4d are -ev games

btc is extremely +ev

hearing him say that people that make money from crypto are lucky makes me angry

his lack of understanding thinks that this is a random lucky outcome?

lol

no wonder why he and mr 1m65 are best friends forever

1 guy go to malaysia another guy downgrade his house

this is who you listen to?

but i cool down

sorry about the personal attacks

one day, these people will understand

you can buy today when its 100k per coin

or you can buy in the future when its 1m per coin

your money your choice

a lot of people confuse btc as a digital gold with e-money cash like properties

too complex

btc is just a simple money printing hedge

so is the s&p500

it is just something to sit in, as the world's government print money, and they naturally soak up the money and increase in value

thats is my thesis

no annual report, no financial statements, no ceo or board call, no product release or breakthroughs

this orange shit goes up because all govts print money

that's it

my own returns from btc and crypto stocks are already over 8 digits

but what do i know?

im just lucky

is your returns better than ROMP? rate of money printing

the rate of money printing is about 7-10% a year

assume worst case 10%

that why recent years us stocks nominal returns are 15% for spy and 20% for qqq

the real returns are 5% and 10%

you invest in us stocks?

good

you are higher than the rate of money printing

you are becoming richer

you invest in sgx stocks, reits, sti etf and value companies?

your returns are 5-15%

average about 10%

real returns 0%

you take on investment risk to match the rate of money printing

you are running and becoming tired but still same place

you invest in bank fd, uob one account promo, moo moo cash plus sign up offers and ssbs?

your returns are 3-5%

i very nice, pretend its 5%

real returns -5%

you do so much financial magic tricks to lose 5% a year

you very good

stylo milo

at least it is entertaining for me to watch

inflation not a scary word

rate of money printing, maybe a bit more scary

call it the global background passive rate of wealth destruction, then maybe people will wake up

everyone knows that "inflation make money worth less over time"

few people do anything about it

just invest in things with the rate of return higher than the rate of money printing lor

easy solution to a easy problem

so what things are higher than the rate of money printing?

you are not going to like the truth

you will never own 1 btc

mathematical fact is most people will never own 1 btc

 

2 years ago it was 27k usd

 

today it is 111k usd

 

from this point onwards, the price of btc will probably run faster than any regular person can accummulate it

 

this means that almost nobody will actually ever own more than 1 whole coin 

got some ppl will own more than 1 btc la

rich ppl lor 

which is not you what

 

another way of saying it

if you set aside $1000 usd / $1300 sgd to buy btc every month over the next 111 months

 

after 9 years and 3 months of buying every month

the price of btc will be so much higher than 111k

that you still wont have 1 whole btc yet

go HAM, dont be GLAM

saw a recent video by contrarian turtle

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdlDcmcEtlM

 

HDB

Avoid cars

Market index

 

instead of

Great Looks All Mortgage

 

lol

 

great video

good in showing opportunity cost

 

2 small comments

 

first is that property flippers are leveraged so their returns are amped

 

of course when comparing full cash property vs stocks, buying property is the worse choice

but this fact is actually not common knowledge

 

but then most people buy property on leverage, and therefore the returns are amplified (must also add financing cost)

 

so not really an apples to apples comparison

but i agree with the general idea

i myself use stocks to grow my wealth, not property

 

second is that he says market index investing, but ownself portfolio all in 5 stocks

 

so indexing investing is only good for me, but not for thee? 

generally generally lah

but he exception

i also exception

then everyone exception lor

 

make joke only. i agree with mr contra turtle.

 

nowadays sinkies absd so cannot play sg property markets, i see so many going into... commercial and overseas real estate? 

 

good luck, you'll need it

interest rates dont matter

bank interest rates going down and that worries you?

that means you are a nominal thinking

bank interest rate on cash deposits does not matter

what should worry you is that no matter if savings account interest rates are 3% or 30%, you will never beat inflation with cash deposits in any of the banks

it is sad how many people do not realize this

trade wars? new "problem" same solution

tariffs and trade wars

war in ukraine, war in middle east

earthquake here, earthquake there

fire here, fire there

new president, bad president

this problem, that problem

all are the same problem

 

governments have so many problems to deal with

- higher cost of living 

- everyone wants social benefits

- ppl compraining HDBs are unaffordable 

i am a practical person

i fix my problems

higher cost of living? 

just make more money

problem solved

 

all government around the world have the same root problem and almost all have the same solution

 

the root problem is that they printed too much money last time and something is now fuck up

the solution is to print more money to unfuck the current problem

new problem? okay print more money to unfuck the problem

new problem? okay print more money to unfuck the problem

new problem? okay print more money to unfuck the problem

new problem? okay print more money to unfuck the problem

new problem? okay print more money to unfuck the problem

new problem? okay print more money to unfuck the problem

new problem? okay print more money to unfuck the problem

new problem? okay print more money to unfuck the problem

new problem? okay print more money to unfuck the problem

new problem? okay print more money to unfuck the problem

 

the eventual effect is always the same

asset prices will go up

stocks will go up

bitcoin will go up 

you think we're going into a lost decade for the usa and global growth slow downs?

well, that sounds like a big problem, agreed?

guess what the solution is

print more money to unfuck the problem

 

the problems are all the same problem, and the solution is always the same one 

 

look back in a few years and it will be obvious