Wednesday, February 28, 2024

why BTC pumped

everyone has their own theory

this is mine

before the BTC ETFs, that was no "easy" and "good enough" way for participants (institutions included) to hold crypto after purchasing it 

many crypto exchanges have gone bankrupt over the years

storing your own coins involves understanding how private-public keypairs are generated, and unfortunately, that is above the intelligence and brain energy committment of most casual people, and also a big problem in institutional settings regarding responsibility, ownership and continuity

custody solutions really only came about last cycle and even then, so many also blew up lol

this upward pricing of BTC is actually this entire risk premia disappearing with the emergence of ETFs

if you bought BTC under $50k and still own it, you got in when risks were high for all the above reasons and more, and your reward for that is that you're in at "low" costs and you can book nice returns whenever you decide to cash out


post $50k, that is the price to come in to play with the newer, child friendly, de-risked version of BTC

it is ultra pathetic to see "intellectuals" in the year 2024 using arguments from circa 2016 against bitcoin and cryptocurrency 

my first reaction is anger and disgust at such ignorance

but now i just smirk and laugh it off

why is it my problem that these people want to scam themselves into staying poor?

me debating them is nothing compared to being haunted that they probably got not one, but at least two or more chances to make generational wealth, but they were too busy preaching the gospel of having fun staying poor

i end with a very famous quote from a famous man that was once asked why BTC was pumping

One of the fastest ways to dox yourself as a cryptopleb is to ask "what's the reason for the Bitcoin pump today." 

Its path to $1m+ is preordained. On any given day it needs no reasons.


Tuesday, February 27, 2024

sinkie stocks = sinking strategy

unfortunately, to the dismay of many very patriotic sinkies, i am actually quite against the strategy of investing into local stocks

i think the correct geographical allocation is only us stocks

and when i say us stocks, i mean us stocks

not international stocks

not non-singapore stocks

definitely not emerging market stocks

only and exclusively, us stocks

us stocks outperform massively, and the taxable dividend portion only makes up a minor portion of the total return

and that can be optimized with ireland / lux domiciled ETFs

modern day irony is buying LSE listed ETFs that invests in us stocks

people will say, investing in sinkie stocks and REITs for the tax free income!

but who cares about getting a tax free dividend income or total return that is low, when you can get a post-tax total return that is high?

people will say that this period of us stock outperformance is cyclical and temporary, and they are all looking forward to international (developed markets ex usa) to outperform

but they would be wrong

the simple reason is that people simply dont give a fuck about non-us stocks

you ever wonder to yourself, "i wonder which hong kong stocks pays good dividends / are good value?"

of course not

and i tell you a secret

no one in the world thinks to themselves "i wonder which singapore stocks pays good dividends / are good value?"

put aside pride and ego

the cost of investment patriotism is plain and simple underperformance

and between a poor patriot or a rich cosmopolitan

i choose being a rich cosmopolitan

Monday, February 26, 2024

every BTC ETF buyer in profit

bitcoin (and crypto) will probably be the most divisive topic in finance for the next decade or so

my personal opinion is very clear: it will go up

soon sinkie finfluenzas will start talking about cryptocurrencies in the near future

some will say how it is a scam and hate it more and more as price goes up

some will convert and start preaching crypto as their new religion


whatever the case, once sinkie finfluenzas start giving it attention

that is your neon flashing sign from god to sell

Monday, February 19, 2024

the evil gahmen trick us about CPF boo hoo hoo

oh? now then everyone found out what is "policy risk"?

is 4% in SA that you can withdraw any time really a big fucking deal?

money market fund is basically 4%

stop being such a pussy

i welcome the higher FRS, since it means more years that i can reduce my taxes

also CPF life is an insanely good government subsidized product and anyone with half a brain will know that it is massively better than any similar instrument on the market

maxing out the FRS is a no brainer decision, and for the rich without liquidity issues, this is the best fixed income asset you can have, compared to all the inferior junk available to be sold to you

the cpf shielding thing doesnt really bother me, but knowing how spoilt sinkies are, im sure the 1m65 ppl are rioting with very angry keyboard warrior attacks, lol

my CPF strategy remains unchange:
1 top up MA and SA every year for max deductions
2 invest OA above $20K into 100% stocks

when i retire
1 let CPF life pay me some basic income
2 withdraw everything else and invest in stocks

stocks are risky?

yeah, well, everything's high risk if you're a pussy

Wednesday, February 14, 2024

friend, are you traveling or doing forex trading?

coincidental for kevin to talk about trust card. i enjoy his posts, in a non guai lan way

last month i wrote about travel related finance stuff and in it i wrote down that my overseas cash withdrawal method is trust card

i expanded by saying its just so much more convenient and also a good rate to just withdraw foreign currency from an ATM after you land, compared to pre-converting before you go

4 things to note:

1 the trust card per transaction withdrawal limit is $2000 SGD, but to my knowing, you can withdraw multiple times over and over again, as long as your bank account has enough SGD to deduct

2 the $2000 SGD limit per transaction is for your card, but the ATM itself may have a max withdrawal limit

3 always select the FCY as the charging currency, do NOT accept their dynamic conversion rate in SGD (same when using cr / dr cards also)

4 even though trust bank itself doesnt charge ATM fee, the machine itself may charge fees, typically per usage, sometimes tiered by withdrawal amount

people like to compare trust to multi currency accounts where you withdraw down your existing balance, but this is a false comparison

the cost to convert your balance in advance are your typical fat bank spreads, which will always be higher thank trust bank exchange rate and somehow that cost seems to be rarely considered

so all the MCY accounts where you can just draw down on the balances are very unexciting

you know what i find funny?

some people like to do "forex trading" when they are preparing for traveling

you think you so smart to "lock in a good rate"? then you should just buy on leverage and earn crazy profits.

"if the rates continues in my favor, i spend with SGD because it is cheaper
if the rates goes against me, i will use my FCY balance that i locked in at a good rate"

lol, so if it goes down you win, but if it goes up you also win?

i would also like to purchase this delulu pill that gives you no downside but infinite upside as well

come on now friend, this is just sad pathetic mental cope

im really very confused about these "lock in good rates" people

why you care so much about making $50 from a $1000 base value forex trade for a week long overseas trip? 

your size is not size

my serious advice is that if you really so smart can "lock in good rates", 1000x your size and become a millionaire

make $50,000 a week instead

if you are so smart, you must be very rich right?

Sunday, February 11, 2024

reject the unnatural, embrace the limitless

a important thing i learn about myself is that i am okay to "pay" to be lazy and have my life simplified

i pay to have my burdens taken away, and that removal of mental burdens gives me more opportunities in life

sometimes i pay in opportunity cost, sometimes i pay in actual extra dollars, but i still pay nonetheless

i will elaborate

when i was younger and poorer, i would always do things the most optimal and efficient and usually cheapest way possible, to maximize my returns (usually at the cost of time x effort)

this sort of makes sense, since at that point of time i had plenty of time and energy, but not enough money

now when i am older and hopefully wiser, i realize that for many things in life, the low-cap, high efficieny promo rate is actually unnatural and not sustainable

and i think it is important to recognize the shift in mindset, as i no longer value marginal dollars as much as i used to when i was young, and i value marginal time and energy reclaimed back at a significantly higher value

this phenomenon of "unnatural" can be commonly seen in credit card sign up promos, credit card monthly bonus spending caps or special FD rates, etc etc

or even in things in corporate tax, where there is a partial tax exemption on initial income

wow, 4.25% corporate tax rate? yeah, *first $10,000

wow, 8.50% corproate tax rate? yeah, *next $190,000

the "true", real, honest, sustainable, natural state of things is not the discount, promo, or special offer rate

(ofc i am not stupid i also know that the reason these unnatural things exist is due to things like marketing and user acquisition budget. just saying, in case you think im stupid)

the real rate is the high throughput rate

the real corporate tax rate is 17%, because go big or go home

the real SGD risk free rate is around 4%, because if you yeet $10M, that's still what you are going to get

the real USD risk free rate is around 5%, because if you yeet $100M, that's still what you are going to get

you think i dont know you can have 6/4mpd credit cards which are so much higher than the 1.6mpd general spend rate? ofc i know, but they all have 1-3k monthly caps

you think i dont know you can open ocbc 360, uob one, scb bonus saver and earn "high" SGD rates? ofc i know, but they are also only for the first $100k each

if your NW is like $300K, then swee, got 3 accounts like this, okay, can

but then you also need to make sure every month you hit the criteria

which actually the salary part is very easy if you have your own company since sure will have SAL code when you process payroll... for yourself, lol

for GIRO payments, i find it a hassle to fill out the manual forms and have them switched

for credit card spending, it is a real mental chore to rememeber this card spend how much during what statement period

rather than remember credit card spending to earn a few thousand extra interest, my brain power is better used making a few hundred thousand gains

unless of course you are saying you really have nothing better to do and your time and energy is so abundant, that spending time on this menial task is still +EV for you, in which case, very good (for me, my time and energy is not abundant, but ultra scarce. i have so many things i want to do, but not enough time)

anyway, if you have $3M sgd cash, then how?

still put $100k x 3 into those accounts, then 2.7m go where? 

moomoo cash plus special promo? sorry friend, that one only $60k subscription.

exactly. you just find what gives you the max throughput risk-free rate, which is about 4%

and see, that is the problem of a lot of things in life

the capped promo rate is unnatural

the true real natural state of things is when things are limitless

you must learn to recognize when the environment is just a curated simulation

versus when the environment is truly showing reality

because 1 of them will warp your perception and get you killed in the other

while the other will steel you against everything, and let you completely dominate in the other

when i see yewtubers like honey money sg and others talk about this promo that promo, sure that makes sense for them, when their NW is small and they can still sybil attack for promotions

but when your NW because large, doing all this is a waste of time

oh, this first 300k i get 5% while the balance 2.7M i get 3.8%?

wa so shiok my weighted average returns from 3.8% goes to 3.92%?

if your liquid SGD cash was 10M instead of 3M, the needle moves from 3.8% to 3.836%

in my opinion, this min-maxing for promotion rates and deposit-restricted high yield becomes a waste of time as you get richer 

i rather earn less and not have to thing about all those conditions and spending on different credit cards some tiny joke amount ($500 / $600 / $800 a month? who knows, they change rules every year)

such things are discrete physical things that do not scale your upside and hold you back

if you life was filled with just maintaining these burdens, how far will you be able to go with the upside that they provide? i imagine, not very far

automate, delegate them away, or reject them altogether 

embrace the limitless

and you too shall be limitless

Thursday, February 8, 2024

you will inherit NOTHING

this is actually poor people cope

it is grossly oversimplified that the only factor is whether you leave your children an inheritance or not

i used to think that equality was important but age has taught me that few things in life are equal or fair and only the naive or low IQ expect that to be so

i think tws is missing a whole entire aspect of having an experienced older person (MAYBE HIS FATHER???) guiding him, instead of doing this "survivor", ownself teach ownself, spiritual awakening, rising up to the challenge of his rival, eye of the tiger sort of struggle journey

sure, you can learn yourself a lot of things

go learn another language yourself, instead of getting a teacher

just dont scam yourself into thinking that because you struggled harder by learning yourself, your quality will be higher

but i know for sure it makes a better story or comic though

using this solo "do it yourself" struggle mode of instruction, how many woke salarymen are produced vs how many completely financially ruined retards? 


not only do i question the quality produced, i also question the success rate

good parenting / instruction >>> "learn by yourself", in almost everything, not just restricted to financial literacy

this comic is pure survivorship bias fantasy cope porn

give your children nothing and watch them struggle needlessly in life and end up hating you if they fail

worst case scenario? at least it will make a good online comic

you can trust me, ive seen it once, just this morning