investing is an already SOLVED 2 body problem

 

1st body - investments

2nd body - investor

finfluenzas and regular people are obsessed with finding out the "best" investment "for 2024", "for passive income", "if the FED cuts interest rates"

and all sorts of lanjiao conditions and qualifiers

 

and they either completely miss, or place a very minor emphasis on the investor

 

the investor, their skill and their mentality probably accounts for 80% of the outcome

 

you think the shoes and jersey affects the outcome of a soccer match?

you think the type of 2B pencil affects results on MCQ OAS tests?

 

there are things that matter

and there are a lot of things that dont matter

 

give a good investor a restricted universe of 3 investment vehicles and watch them outperform against "professionals" with "decades of experience" in any of those same 3 investment vehicles operating under the same constraints

you could wake up tomorrow and be fully all-in into the best performing asset of 2024, and have the knowledge that you would make a lot of money by selling it all on 31 dec 2024

and yet, you would still fuck it up in the long term because:

 

its not about the investments

its about the investor

 

thats the difference between one-off lucky people, and perpetually "lucky" investors

sinkies are at a perpetual disadvantage to americans

it is not just sinkies

it is every country in the world that is not USA

the biggest advantage is the USD

the 2nd is american products

USD denominated means that americans are the only people that do not need to have FX friction in and out of investments - ever

they do not need to find out what is the cheapest way to convert large amounts of currency, because they just dont

next is american products, which are just simply built different, built better

american ETFs are always the cheapest

ofc, considering div tax + IHT, you dont want your ETFs to be US domiciled

if you are poor, dont worry about the above statement, continue your VOO DCA

if you are rich, you'd realize that although TER is higher for non-US domicile, after factoring in the better tax treatment + IHT exemption, you are significantly better off

but US ETFs are just way more liquid than non-US ETFs

 

then theres wealthfront, betterment, robinhood, apple card 4.5% savings account + 2% unlimited cashback

what do we have? tigerbrokers, syfe, moomoo? LOL

to be honest, i dont blame such brokers / fintech companies

sinkies damn kiam sup about money, the market is tiny and having to deal with SGD FX is such huge friction, it eats away at the attractability of whatever benefits they can offer

and the mix of the above both factors contribute to liquidity

the world is shifting away from non-liquidity, if you realize

products are better simply because they are more liquid, and that ofc makes sense

being denominated in USD makes USD denominated products accessible not just to americans, but to any other person globally, because there is no aversion for ultra rich people to hold/transact in USD compared to their local currency, all these increase the liquidity of USD products

actually, i would think in almost all cases, every billionaire in the world denominates in USD

probably centi millionaires as well

only the deca millionaires and below have some obsession with local currency milestones, which is why they are only best in the local ladder ranks, but low on the global ladder ranks

best is singapore, jb and some say batam?

you need to dream bigger my friend

the world is your oyster omelette

rich people think in USD

and while the USD has lost purchasing power over the years

95% other currencies has lost even more

perhaps this is the one the few benefits of being sinkie, since the sinkie currency has outperformed USD on longer time frames

would that continue in the future?

i think not, or just marginally

when you realize that all americans have access to 4% money market funds with no FX fees and 250K FDIC bank insurance and access to tons of financial tools

it becomes apparently very quickly that the rate of return you need to beat is 4% a year, in USD terms, since that is their "risk-free" rate , just to keep up with everyone else

but there is a silver lining

objectively speaking, in the whole wide world

being tax resident of singapore probably puts you at the top 1% of the world population in terms of financial opportunity

while americans have the USD + access advantage, they are at a massive disadvantage after you factor in taxes

other than singapore, there is a handful of places in the world that allows you to grow wealth as close as possible to maximum speed

if you wonder why money all over the world is moving into singapore to set up family offices, that is the answer right there

investing is not about being right

consumed a bit of local finfluenza blogs and yewtube content this weekend

made me vomit abit in my own mouth because i was digesting their waste garbage thoughts

so felt that i should share this

this is investing

investing does not determine who has the best theory on valuation and asset allocation

only who makes money

dont forget

you are here to make money

fixed deposit ladder is actually stupid

i do not think it is a smart investment strategy

i think it is a stupid investment strategy

sorry for the call out

just my opinion, no hard feelings

https://mysweetretirement.com/build-passive-income-with-fixed-deposits/

doing this only makes sense if you are also limiting deposits to SDIC limits

because you are worried about bank failure

stick your money into money market funds and earn a higher rate while also being more liquid

it is actually completely unreasonable to prefer FDs unless you are an illiterate old person that dont know how to use anything except banks

relatively, FDs are illiquid with penalties, with lower rates

i guess it makes sense to prefer FDs over mmfs if you are the humji type and cannot accept a -0.01% on a day to day basis

as they say

everything is high risk

if you are a pussy

there is a strange mentally ill desire to never ever have any negative days

 

id just say

that in this world of investing

and of all the different risks that exists

if the risk that a singapore bank failing is too much for you to handle and something you feel that you should be risk mitigating

then go ahead and ladder your FDs within the SDIC limit

if you are happy, the banks are happy too

win-win

countertrade your fellow sinkies

the sinkie finfluenzas are starting to have an opinion on crypto

there are a few of them that i am going to countertrade and they will perfectly signal to me this top and the next bottom of the crypto market

because that is how disgustingly midcurve they are

which is ironic

because i see so much of my past self in them

in terms of (wrong) investment philosophy

 

as the evolved form of them, it is so easy for me to see the flaws in their thinking

 

my only advice for these ppl is to remember the point of investing

you invest to make money

 

who cares which instrument you used?

who gives a fuck about your risk-adjusted returns?

at the end of the day, how much did you make?

 

if they truly believe that their profits are more "halal" than my profits

then arrogance will be their downfall

if they were so smart, they must be very rich right

beware the midwit

 

isnt it funny

how anyone you know that actually made money from crypto

are either geniuses

or straight up retarded [hello, it is me]

while everyone you know that invested in crypto and broke even or LOST MONEY

are your typical average midwits

"fundamentals", "just speculation", "pure gambling"

no intrinsic value

its so funny to hear poor people speak so authoritatively on something they know nothing about

surely

if they were so smart, they must be very rich right

right???

2 months performance review

2 months and some days

 

 

50%+ returns

absolute returns 8 digits

yes yes yes of course is all unrealized fake profits

dont count chickens before they hatch hor?

conservatively, i will end the year with 100%+ returns

realistically, actually 200%+

but i prefer to be conservative

cos you know

i am a very conservative and humji sort of person

how are your t-bills, fixed deposits, webull / moomoo promotions and singapore dividend stocks doing? 

safe investments are the best

things too big, very scary right?

if the returns the number too big, you also scared right?

i will protect you and take all the big big things, so you can happily enjoy all your small small things