Tuesday, January 23, 2024

simply complain

the simply go controversy is a joke


i think the gahmen did a bad job at communicating the change and planning the transition

people hate change even if the change is better for them

people just like things the way they are and always have been even if its really stupid

the gahmen not taking this human element into account is their miscalculation

talk to citizens straight like educated adults wont work

you must treat citizens like little chewren

you need to trick them to ownself want what you want

simply children


but im not heartless and i do sympathize with the old people that dont know how to use handphones

simply too hard


an uncle i know complained how the gahmen is so bad and used this simply go issue as proof

the funny thing is that this uncle doesnt even take public transport, he drives his own car to get around

very typical of sinkies that got no problems in life, to go find problems to get upset about

if you ever wonder why sinkies are always so unhappy, it is cos they are happy to be unhappy

simply unhappy


i have been using simply go since they rolled out whenever mrt or bus is convenient for me

i dont know much how im charged each trip i take on public transport and i actually dont care

just cos i have money doesnt mean i dont take public transport

its not even about the cost, sometimes public transport is just more convenient

simply better


but i keep such opinions to myself

if you tell a middle class family they dont actually need a car, watch them get irritated and agitated as they list out all the reasons why a car is a non-negiotiable must-have for every family

they will get very upset

its like if you tell them you dont plan to buy a second property as an investment rental

or worse, if you rent your place instead of owning

it shakes their fundamental truths in life and such a reality is too much for them to handle

 

i am

simply guai lan

Sunday, January 14, 2024

travel related finance stuff

first holiday of 2024 


insurance: singlife travel prestige, annual multi trip, family plan, worldwide coverage + winter sports

SGD pre-departure spending: 1.6 mpd uncapped cards

FCY spending: 2.0 or higher mpd uncapped cards

back up payment method: mastercard debit card

overseas cash withdrawal method: trust card

departure airport limo: claimed with credit card

arrival airport limo: claimed with dbs private access

outbound lounge: included in biz class ticket

inbound lounge: included in biz class ticket

data access: roaming with sg telco provider + foreign sim

 

not sure if i missed out anything relevant


i havent reach the level yet where i need to have a PA to arrange my travels for me

i still plan everything myself on a humble spreadsheet

i actually hope i never reach the point where i lose the independence to make my own travel plans

plus, not like i have anything else better to do and i actually enjoy doing it myself and connecting all the dots


no private jet also because its actually pure ego to get one if you live in singapore. as a travel hub, its just way more efficient to book biz/first commercial than fly private. 

private makes a lot of sense if you want to do smuggling

private makes sense if you live in shit countries with poor flight connections and also terrible airport experience. or you have to fly a lot for work and need be physically present. in which case, sucks to be you lol

private while being based in singapore makes no sense

 

of course i wanted to redeem miles, but last minute decide then no mile tickets available so cash lor


i really need plan trips at least a few months ahead, instead of within the same month, or else im never going to be able to use up my miles

now my miles production is higher than my miles consumption by a lot alot

but as they say, happy rich people problem


these days when travelling i feel like most things can pay for with card/phone or even prepay online

but some places and some businesses in the world still operate old school with cash. why? probably tax undeclaration, but let's pretend that they are just old fashioned hor

i do not like to carry a lot of cash with me and i also lazy to check customs limit on cash for every country i visit, so i just travel in with a couple hundred sgd worth of cash spare change in the local currency and then use trust card to withdraw whatever balance i need. i think trust card exchange rates are good enough to completely avoid the need of going to a money changer pre-departure. even if its not the best best rate, how much better is a money changing going to be? 100bps better? i dont think so big but maybe i wrong. are you going to spend more than $5000 using cash? lets say the differenece is 1% , you earn extra $50 for withdrawing cash, visiting a money changer, securing it and bringing it along with you. is all that worth $50? i dont think so. and that is if you spend $5000 cash, which i dont think most people do. if cash spending is $1000 or less, you earn only $10 for all that extra work. but if you are very free and your time is worth nothing, then i guess why not. good to walk around and get some exercise, but i dont believe in any particular money changer being worth the trip to exchange money pre departure. not anymore, not in today's world.

the main reason i use trust card for cash withdrawal is simply cos all the other options have a cap, and then they start charging what i consider high fees for cash withdrawal. i believe trust card is $2000 sgd per withdrawal transaction, and you can just do multiple withdrawals. the other options are like first $500 free withdrawal or some stupid low amount like that. i guess it works fine if you are buying street market food and shopping.

 

for lounge access, i can access all the networks because of my credit cards, but have never necessary since i fly biz class

 

recently i read up on hotel loyalty status. after thinking, i will not go out of my way to try and acquire any status

i dont have loyalty to any particular hotel brand. i pick hotels based on their location and what i plan to do when i am there 

maybe my view on this will change in the future, but for now, status chasing is not a factor when picking accomms

this batch of hotels are from $200 a night to $2500 a night

if i was travelling alone, would i ever stay in a hotel over $2000 a night? over my dead body lol

but okay la, at least i am exposed to such atas places. i try to be inspired by the architecture and interior design

yes i know amex platinum can get auto status with some hotels. but i find it very hard to make use of the platinum card. i dont mind to pay the $1.7k annual fee, but what do i get back? this could be a whole post, but i wont long story. cut short, for my lifestyle, amex platinum offers me nothing worth the fee.


am i forgetting anything? let me know

Wednesday, January 10, 2024

i will be buying the btc etf

many people hate crypto


i know clearly all the reasons why people dislike and or hate it

i also know why people love it


my experience is that people that hate crypto are very arrogant, ignorant and have a very infantile and naive view of the financial markets and how the real world works

 

its like talking to a small child

these people have only 1 special ability and that is reciting quotes from financial gurus

cute

but if you are so smart, you must be very rich right?


i plan to put in 8 digits of my own money into the bitcoin and other crypto ETFs

price movement wont be smooth, and i think 2025-2027 will be bumpy


crazy decision? dont worry, i am not using your money, i am using my money


as the crypto bros say

 

have fun staying poor

Sunday, January 7, 2024

i rather be a "lucky gambler" than a shit investor

i like watching other sinkie yewtubers

personal finance is a niche topic, so interesting to get perspectives of other ppl living in singapore and talking about nerdy financial things that most people don't have an interest in


unfortunately, i disagree with the majority of the yewtubers

 

today i woke up and while drinking my morning kopi, was watching "how to invest for beginners in 2024" by kelvin learns investing

 

2 mins into the video i hear him say some nonsense crap

 

"when ppl think about investing, they think about few hundred % gains - going to the moon and all that stuff.

no. that is not investing. that is just gambling.

investing is not a get rich quick scheme ya. instead it is a smart and safe way of growing your money (if you do it correctly of course)"



LOL


you know what i thought of when i heard that?



my diagnosis of most of the sinkie finance yewtubers are 2 critical illnesses (hopefully they have insurance for these)

most have 1, some have both

1. obsession with never losing money, so they love love "smart and safe" investments

2. "property only goes up"

i suppose that is why they are where they are, and i am where i am


here is my distinction between investing and gambling


if you increase your time horizon, and if your odds of succeeding INCREASES, that is investing

if you increase your time horizon, and if your odds of succeeding DECREASES, that is gambling

 

making 2-8% a year does NOT auto mean smart and safe investing

making 40% a year is NOT auto mean wa what a lucky gamble

the number size is not what determines if its investing or gambling

 

small does not mean good, big does not mean bad

actually, small means "oh shit", and big means huat ah

why you want small? big better

size matters

 

anyway, i give you example

if you can count cards while playing blackjack at a casino, is that gambling? no, its not, because the longer you play, the more likely you will win

don't confuse your own ignorance, lack of understanding or lack of skill, so you say something is gambling

 

if you invest in very volatile investments, is that gambling?

ppl tell you volatile investments go down a lot, but if you are a humji kia, that is all you focus on

but did you know, volatile investments also go UP a lot? oh, no body told you? now you know

definitely there are many volatile investments have long run -EV, so just cos its volatile doesnt mean that its good. but just cos its volatile also doesnt mean that its bad. in fact, i prefer volatile investments cos all the weak are killed and their losses becomes my extraordinary gains. whether something is long run gunna be +EV or -EV is where your brains come in


over the long run, does your investment strategy make money? is it +EV? and if you increase your time period, does it increases your odds of making money? if yes, then i would consider it investing, not gambling.


here is my brain expansion thought of the day for you

its not the asset that determines if something is a gamble or investment

its an overall assessment after including the strategy, that will determine if something is a gamble or investment


so many people are so quick to write off anyone playing blackjack as gamblers

but some of us know how to count cards

you think we are playing the same game and your odds are as good as mine

but sorry my friend you are wrong

i am not gambling, i am shaking down the house


but ppl dont want to hear this inconvenient truth, so nevermind

if it helps you sleep at night, you can say that i am a "lucky gambler"

Thursday, January 4, 2024

Guai Lan credit cards (local spend)

i have been using the ocbc voyage premier and i think it is a very good general spending card


1.6mpd is as as high as you can get for uncapped local general spending

can redeem voyage miles for cashback, at 1 mile = 1c, min 5000 miles, so even if you don't care about the miles game, it is a 1.6% cashback on a visa card, which is on par with the highest cashback focused card, citi cash back+

also got the uob absolute 1.7%, but its an amex so who actually cares about that, lol


GLK actually also has a dbs insignia card, which is also 1.6 mpd uncapped local spend. but i dont like much it cos the way that DBS allows points to be used for cashback redemption is that only if you redeem in 100,000 DBS points (= 200,000 miles), you can get $2000 cashback


if you redeem dbs points for lower cashback value, your cashback % is lower

using 1.6mpd earn rate

$200 credit = 0.8%
$350 credit = 1.12%
$580 credit = 1.16%
$800 credit = 1.18%
$1200 credit = 1.2%
$2000 credit = 1.6%

all this means that even tho you CAN redeem dbs points for cashback, you SHOULD NOT, unless it is for the $2000 credit


btw i saw people say insignia card annual fee cannot waive

will tell you now that they are wrong and it can be waived. 

just spend a lot of money on the card, they will waive the annual fees. GLK tried and tested.


anyway, redeeming points for cashback is never worth it, unless you never travel

or if you travel, you only fly budget or economy class.

when using miles for biz class tickets, miles will be worth at least 2c

i use 1.7c per mile for my worst case valuation

realistically, i use 2.25c per mile for my typical valuation

in practise, i got redeem miles closer to 3c before


with my base case of 2.25c per mile and the 1.6mpd earn rate, my "cashback" is 3.6%

this sort of valuation only makes sense if you will pay in cash for business class tickets if you didn't use miles - and i do and i have paid cash for biz class tickets when i couldn't use miles

if you are the kind that only flys biz class if you have miles, but if paying cash will fly (premium) economy or budget, then the above logical dont make sense. i think you should value your miles at economy redemption rates.


final piece of the puzzle is that i pay off credit cards by giro from hsbc ega and that gives me another 1% cashback

so my "cashback" on local general spending is 4.6%, which is pretty good i guess?


my problem with hsbc ega is that the 1% for giro bill payment caps at $50K a month. so for months when i spend over $50K, my net and final "cashback" rate is lower


but that is a rich man problem and the hsbc ega thing is free cashback without anything extra to do, other than the set up of the credit card giro deduction, so really cannot complain


final point: why don't i use specialized credit cards to earn higher 4/6 mpd? 

answer: their higher mpd caps are too low for it to be worth it for me to give a damn


ocbc ladys solitaire 6mpd but only $3k cap?

dbs womans 4mpd, but only $2k cap?

hsbc revolution 4mpd, but only $1k cap?


or the infamous amaze + citi rewards for 4mpd? but only for $1k spend a month?

is an extra 2400 miles a month worth me thinking about another card?

let's value the 2400 miles optimistically at 3c = $72

let's round it UP to the nearest $10 because why not, so $80

is $80 worth it for me to care about what cards to use, and keep a running total on my various cards based on their calendar/statement cycles so that i can optimize my credit card rewards?


maybe in the past, i would have cared. free money, why not?


but today, the answer is no. it is too little money for me to care. i rather pay to not have to think about another card, and technically, that is how much i pay, in opportunity cost

i always see finfluenzas talk about this card that card this "strategy" vs other strategy

how much of their daily lives is spent thinking about credit cards and having a running total of their spending? lol

other than reviewing my credit card spending philosophy and strategy (like now, in this post) i spend 0 minutes a month thinking about my spending on my credit cards, if i hit a minimum spend, or if i exceeded the spend on a card or some category, if this card is statement month or calendar month, or if some merchant is whatever knn mcc

i just use 1 card for everything

it does not bother me that i earn lower mpd

don't get me wrong, i am not saying my way is good and other ways are bad. i just have a different goal from other people

i am not trying to maximize miles

i am maximizing personal happiness

there is a price for reducing mental clutter and not having to think about inconsequential nonsense, and i am rich enough to pay that price

Monday, January 1, 2024

2023 was huat, 2024 will be more huat

2023 performance

brokerage #1: +141%

brokerage #2: +86%

brokerage #3: +247%

brokerage #4: +418%

brokerage #5: +215%

brokerage #6: +69%

if you know photoshop, you can also make your balance to be as big as you want


unrealized profits for 2023 is 8 digits


i hope my 2024 performance to be at least similar, if not, much much better


some people are aiming for CPF1M65


i prefer Cash10M45