i rather be a "lucky gambler" than a shit investor

i like watching other sinkie yewtubers

personal finance is a niche topic, so interesting to get perspectives of other ppl living in singapore and talking about nerdy financial things that most people don't have an interest in

unfortunately, i disagree with the majority of the yewtubers

 

today i woke up and while drinking my morning kopi, was watching "how to invest for beginners in 2024" by kelvin learns investing

 

2 mins into the video i hear him say some nonsense crap

 

"when ppl think about investing, they think about few hundred % gains - going to the moon and all that stuff.

no. that is not investing. that is just gambling.

investing is not a get rich quick scheme ya. instead it is a smart and safe way of growing your money (if you do it correctly of course)"

LOL

you know what i thought of when i heard that?

my diagnosis of most of the sinkie finance yewtubers are 2 critical illnesses (hopefully they have insurance for these)

most have 1, some have both

1. obsession with never losing money, so they love love "smart and safe" investments

2. "property only goes up"

i suppose that is why they are where they are, and i am where i am

here is my distinction between investing and gambling

if you increase your time horizon, and if your odds of succeeding INCREASES, that is investing

if you increase your time horizon, and if your odds of succeeding DECREASES, that is gambling

 

making 2-8% a year does NOT auto mean smart and safe investing

making 40% a year is NOT auto mean wa what a lucky gamble

the number size is not what determines if its investing or gambling

 

small does not mean good, big does not mean bad

actually, small means "oh shit", and big means huat ah

why you want small? big better

size matters

 

anyway, i give you example

if you can count cards while playing blackjack at a casino, is that gambling? no, its not, because the longer you play, the more likely you will win

don't confuse your own ignorance, lack of understanding or lack of skill, so you say something is gambling

 

if you invest in very volatile investments, is that gambling?

ppl tell you volatile investments go down a lot, but if you are a humji kia, that is all you focus on

but did you know, volatile investments also go UP a lot? oh, no body told you? now you know

definitely there are many volatile investments have long run -EV, so just cos its volatile doesnt mean that its good. but just cos its volatile also doesnt mean that its bad. in fact, i prefer volatile investments cos all the weak are killed and their losses becomes my extraordinary gains. whether something is long run gunna be +EV or -EV is where your brains come in

over the long run, does your investment strategy make money? is it +EV? and if you increase your time period, does it increases your odds of making money? if yes, then i would consider it investing, not gambling.

here is my brain expansion thought of the day for you

its not the asset that determines if something is a gamble or investment

its an overall assessment after including the strategy, that will determine if something is a gamble or investment

so many people are so quick to write off anyone playing blackjack as gamblers

but some of us know how to count cards

you think we are playing the same game and your odds are as good as mine

but sorry my friend you are wrong

i am not gambling, i am shaking down the house

but ppl dont want to hear this inconvenient truth, so nevermind

if it helps you sleep at night, you can say that i am a "lucky gambler"