Saturday, March 30, 2024

investing is an already SOLVED 2 body problem


1st body - investments

2nd body - investor

finfluenzas and regular people are obsessed with finding out the "best" investment "for 2024", "for passive income", "if the FED cuts interest rates"

and all sorts of lanjiao conditions and qualifiers


and they either completely miss, or place a very minor emphasis on the investor


the investor, their skill and their mentality probably accounts for 80% of the outcome


you think the shoes and jersey affects the outcome of a soccer match?

you think the type of 2B pencil affects results on MCQ OAS tests?


there are things that matter

and there are a lot of things that dont matter


give a good investor a restricted universe of 3 investment vehicles and watch them outperform against "professionals" with "decades of experience" in any of those same 3 investment vehicles operating under the same constraints

you could wake up tomorrow and be fully all-in into the best performing asset of 2024, and have the knowledge that you would make a lot of money by selling it all on 31 dec 2024

and yet, you would still fuck it up in the long term because:


its not about the investments

its about the investor


thats the difference between one-off lucky people, and perpetually "lucky" investors

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