Monday, June 16, 2025

financial statements and earnings reports are worthless

level up in the financial markets is one day understanding that everything is noise


s&p500 / xyz company earnings release next week? up or down? miss target? beat expectations?


who actually gives a fuck?


it has been years since i last read a financial statement

i have 8 digits invested in company stocks and i dont know there earnings or growth or whatever kanasai metrics

my returns have never been better

cos it all does not matter


if you so smart, you must be very rich right


anyway

everything comes down to 1 thing:

rate of money printing


when ppl learn about investing

at some point they also learn about inflation and why $1 is only worth $0.50 in 20 years


'ya the value of money goes down over time, EVERY ONE KNOWS'


but it is so funny that people all accept the effect, but do not accept the cause


WHY the value of money go down over time?


even with deflationary tech like digital media, technological improvement, increased productivity and experience, prices of goods go.... up over time?


digital distribution and reproduction cost is zero.

digital storage is essentially free.

automation has expanded productivity from 8 work hours a day to 24/7 continues production

human experience and knowledge means constant improvement


yet, the prices of the same goods and same services go up every year


corporate greed is a weak and bad answer

inflation of everything, including costs, is the more correct answer

and why does the price of basic cost inputs go up every year?


my answer is that money printing devalues everything in the economy, so prices of everything will always go up

electricity, water, bread, eggs, whatever

everything go up in price

not cos they are more valuable or higher quality

but cos there is more money that was printed 


everyone acknowledges inflation exist

yet so many people refuse to accept that government prints unknown amounts of currency with no oversight


we cannot stop the money printing

only can accept it and then decide a strategy that takes it into account


real estate? non divisible, not portable, regulatory risks

gold? portable in small amounts

stocks? only us large/mega caps. any other market or segment is an uneducated choice

private equity or debt? lol good joke


different assets have different 'absorption rate' of printed money

some are very bad at absorbing the money, so its price will not go up much

some are very good at absorbing the money so the price will go up alot, even faster than the rate that money is being printed, cos many other things are so weak at absorbing the money


the only real solution is considered a dirty word and lazy speculative investing


but it is actually the peak of clear and enlightened thinking

Wednesday, June 4, 2025

perfect proxy for tradfi views on btc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxelHBXOmOg


stable assets does not equal good assets

this is textbok midcurve tradfi thinking

cash also very stable what


using high volatility as a screening criteria is hypocritical


so there is a "correct" amount of volatility to take on for returns?

bullshit, he is just making new rules to already fit his own answer


even volatility adjust, btc has superior profile to stocks


toto and 4d are -ev games

btc is extremely +ev


hearing him say that people that make money from crypto are lucky makes me angry

his lack of understanding thinks that this is a random lucky outcome?

lol

no wonder why he and mr 1m65 are best friends forever

1 guy go to malaysia another guy downgrade his house

this is who you listen to?


but i cool down

sorry about the personal attacks



one day, these people will understand



you can buy today when its 100k per coin

or you can buy in the future when its 1m per coin

your money your choice



a lot of people confuse btc as a digital gold with e-money cash like properties

too complex

btc is just a simple money printing hedge

so is the s&p500


it is just something to sit in, as the world's government print money, and they naturally soak up the money and increase in value


thats is my thesis

no annual report, no financial statements, no ceo or board call, no product release or breakthroughs

this orange shit goes up because all govts print money

that's it


my own returns from btc and crypto stocks are already over 8 digits

but what do i know?

im just lucky

Monday, June 2, 2025

is your returns better than ROMP? rate of money printing

the rate of money printing is about 7-10% a year

assume worst case 10%


that why recent years us stocks nominal returns are 15% for spy and 20% for qqq


the real returns are 5% and 10%

you invest in us stocks?


good


you are higher than the rate of money printing

you are becoming richer


you invest in sgx stocks, reits, sti etf and value companies?

your returns are 5-15%

average about 10%

real returns 0%


you take on investment risk to match the rate of money printing

you are running and becoming tired but still same place


you invest in bank fd, uob one account promo, moo moo cash plus sign up offers and ssbs?

your returns are 3-5%

i very nice, pretend its 5%

real returns -5%


you do so much financial magic tricks to lose 5% a year

you very good

stylo milo

at least it is entertaining for me to watch


inflation not a scary word

rate of money printing, maybe a bit more scary

call it the global background passive rate of wealth destruction, then maybe people will wake up


everyone knows that "inflation make money worth less over time"

few people do anything about it


just invest in things with the rate of return higher than the rate of money printing lor

easy solution to a easy problem

so what things are higher than the rate of money printing?


you are not going to like the truth