crypto bottoming

first patrick boyle

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xhrzm4CmpEo 

now how money works

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Rr3o1S-SQk 

2 big youtubers shitting on crypto

the bottom should be soon, if not, already in  

krisflyer access is great

alot of ppl complaining that access awards too ex

but for mile-llionaires like myself, the mile cost is never the problem

the problem is always waitlist or availability

able to just pay more in miles to get what you want is amazing

i like price surging when demand is more than supply

cos i have resources, if can pay more to win, is always the best

theme park fast pass

airport fast track

attraction or event vip package

ride hailing price surge

if the only problem is money

then it is not a problem*

*if you have alot of money

this is the same for miles

in the past i like ocbc voyage cos they got 2 ways to redeem miles

1 is just normal way like all the other banks

2 is a special way, where they will purchase regular tickets, then burn your miles at a rate of 1.7c per mile

the big benefit is that this bypass mile seats availability

the negative is the value is considered by many to be low

1.7c a mile maybe is low for many people

but if you are earning 1.5mpd, then @ 1.7c value = 2.55% cashback

this is higher cashback than all general spend cashback cards

and i was going to fly biz or first class no matter what, either with miles if available, or pay with cash

access is even better than ocbc option 2, which i feel is already an okay way

i just check for a trip i am planning

highest access surge of 100% of the regular advantage mile redemption rate

compare against just buying a ticket with cash

the value per mile is 2.3c

since i have switched to scb beyond card since they came out, i earn 2mpd

2mpd @ 2.3c value = 4.6% cashback

1 leg of the flight cant even waitlist

and waitlist is not good, cannot confirm

ppl say the access cost is too high

ppl dont realize that there are ppl like me with too much miles to spend 

win for sia = they burn my miles at the lowest value

win for me = i get to use my miles for travel even if there are no mile seats to redeem

if the only downside is that something is expensive

then there is no downside if you are rich

money honey 2026 investment pivot

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_0uoCcblsc

 

 video tldr;

- moving from US to all world equities

- buying gold and silver 

- focus on business earning

- enjoy lifestyle freedom

 

my comments:

 

us vs all world is the least wrong decision to make

you reach enlightenment once you realize you need to be 100% all in equities (if no crypto)

the only last question is whether you think us will outperform all world

 

imo: us will outperform all world long run

 

all world is not a wrong choice. but it is the "safer" choice, and hence, lower r/r

 

gold and silver

the "devaluation" trade?

lol, so close, but still not yet there

by the time chris finally understands bitcoin, it is going to be 250k

 

focus on biz earning

already said before, he is still in the super soldier era of his life

no work? no money, no honey

what he puts in is what he gets back. he can never stop. 

he doesnt understand that if he really wants to enjoy #4 lifestyle freedom, he needs to be the boss, not the saikang warrior that showcase face on youtube and actually does the consulting

but famous ppl is like that

since you make money from fame, if you dont show your face, no more money

i guess he will continue his hustling under he levels up his thinking again

but will the money is coming in good now, i dont think it is a wrong choice, just paradox to next point 

 

enjoy lifestyle freedom is good

still not there yet

still need to post frequent videos

still need to post updates

still need to unzip pants and show transparency, or else no credibility

is this freedom? it is not 9 to 5 office job where he must show up at office, but he still has all this obligations if he wants to continue earning from youtube, sponsors and his consulting

 

my predictions for chris:

- within 5 years he will abandon the live humbly life. his nice and cheap renovated HDB is out, private property is in. there is no way he does not play the private property game. 

- he will capitulate to btc eventually. everyone capitulates eventually. only question is whether you capitulate early and buy your first bitcoin at $1000, $10,000, $100,000 or 1 million dollars.

- he realize he cannot attain true "lifestyle freedom" as he needs to perform his financial entertainment with frequent video uploads. uploading videos with travel backgrounds isnt the flex anyone thinks it is. bro, you are working, just overseas. i suggest he hire a xmm co-host, but also that don't have an affair with her.

 

sidenote: what melvin lim did with PLB to eventually transition himself from being the main entertainment monkey, to being an occassional supporting character that runs the show behind the scenes is actually a very good template on how to pull back and actually get "lifestyle freedom". 

 

one of the reasons why i like to talk about chris from honey money so much is because i see so much of my younger self in him. all his thinking right now? i've been through it and already came out the other end of the tunnel.

 

he is 1M34. very soon the next thing he needs to reach enlightenment for is: have all this money FOR WHAT? i look forward to see what his answer will be.

(spoiler: the answer will be private property) 

2025 finish

market boring

crypto markets down as expected (see last post)

i dunno when bitcoin will bottom but it really dont matter

long term sure go up

i heard someone talk about just having a plan for things you cannot control

rainy? put clothes inside dryer

sunny? go hang out in the sun

dont need to blame the weather or god

blame yourself for not knowing what to do

2025 was an okay year for me

profit this year is 8 digits

so i cant complain

2026 will be another good year

actually it is always a good year every year

all governments print so much money, do nothing also will get richer

crypto caution

bitcoin made new ath last week but no signs of retail mania

 

many scamcoins are also up alot

 

once liquidity runs back, you only want to hold bitcoin

 

crypto market might peak soon or already have cos of wall st buying the treasury companys

 

good news is next btc bear market will be shorter and less pain 

 

if long term believer, no need sell high buy low for bitcoin

 

just prepare your mental for it 

 

bitcoin goes up forever, just like us stocks 

i cannot give you balls

companies buying millions and billions of bitcoin

 

and you still bearish? 

 

you can tell a man what to buy 

but you cannot give him the balls to press buy with his own money

 

dont worry

if you dont buy

GLK will buy

michael saylor will buy

plenty of companies will buy

countries and soverign wealth funds will buy

 

maybe then

after it is safe and your mother father tell you can buy 

only then will you buy

 

or maybe you will still be a pussy

 

who knows? 

hard to say 

financial statements and earnings reports are worthless

level up in the financial markets is one day understanding that everything is noise

s&p500 / xyz company earnings release next week? up or down? miss target? beat expectations?

who actually gives a fuck?

it has been years since i last read a financial statement

i have 8 digits invested in company stocks and i dont know there earnings or growth or whatever kanasai metrics

my returns have never been better

cos it all does not matter

if you so smart, you must be very rich right

anyway

everything comes down to 1 thing:

rate of money printing

when ppl learn about investing

at some point they also learn about inflation and why $1 is only worth $0.50 in 20 years

'ya the value of money goes down over time, EVERY ONE KNOWS'

but it is so funny that people all accept the effect, but do not accept the cause

WHY the value of money go down over time?

even with deflationary tech like digital media, technological improvement, increased productivity and experience, prices of goods go.... up over time?

digital distribution and reproduction cost is zero.

digital storage is essentially free.

automation has expanded productivity from 8 work hours a day to 24/7 continues production

human experience and knowledge means constant improvement

yet, the prices of the same goods and same services go up every year

corporate greed is a weak and bad answer

inflation of everything, including costs, is the more correct answer

and why does the price of basic cost inputs go up every year?

my answer is that money printing devalues everything in the economy, so prices of everything will always go up

electricity, water, bread, eggs, whatever

everything go up in price

not cos they are more valuable or higher quality

but cos there is more money that was printed 

everyone acknowledges inflation exist

yet so many people refuse to accept that government prints unknown amounts of currency with no oversight

we cannot stop the money printing

only can accept it and then decide a strategy that takes it into account

real estate? non divisible, not portable, regulatory risks

gold? portable in small amounts

stocks? only us large/mega caps. any other market or segment is an uneducated choice

private equity or debt? lol good joke

different assets have different 'absorption rate' of printed money

some are very bad at absorbing the money, so its price will not go up much

some are very good at absorbing the money so the price will go up alot, even faster than the rate that money is being printed, cos many other things are so weak at absorbing the money

the only real solution is considered a dirty word and lazy speculative investing

but it is actually the peak of clear and enlightened thinking

perfect proxy for tradfi views on btc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxelHBXOmOg

stable assets does not equal good assets

this is textbok midcurve tradfi thinking

cash also very stable what

using high volatility as a screening criteria is hypocritical

so there is a "correct" amount of volatility to take on for returns?

bullshit, he is just making new rules to already fit his own answer

even volatility adjust, btc has superior profile to stocks

toto and 4d are -ev games

btc is extremely +ev

hearing him say that people that make money from crypto are lucky makes me angry

his lack of understanding thinks that this is a random lucky outcome?

lol

no wonder why he and mr 1m65 are best friends forever

1 guy go to malaysia another guy downgrade his house

this is who you listen to?

but i cool down

sorry about the personal attacks

one day, these people will understand

you can buy today when its 100k per coin

or you can buy in the future when its 1m per coin

your money your choice

a lot of people confuse btc as a digital gold with e-money cash like properties

too complex

btc is just a simple money printing hedge

so is the s&p500

it is just something to sit in, as the world's government print money, and they naturally soak up the money and increase in value

thats is my thesis

no annual report, no financial statements, no ceo or board call, no product release or breakthroughs

this orange shit goes up because all govts print money

that's it

my own returns from btc and crypto stocks are already over 8 digits

but what do i know?

im just lucky

is your returns better than ROMP? rate of money printing

the rate of money printing is about 7-10% a year

assume worst case 10%

that why recent years us stocks nominal returns are 15% for spy and 20% for qqq

the real returns are 5% and 10%

you invest in us stocks?

good

you are higher than the rate of money printing

you are becoming richer

you invest in sgx stocks, reits, sti etf and value companies?

your returns are 5-15%

average about 10%

real returns 0%

you take on investment risk to match the rate of money printing

you are running and becoming tired but still same place

you invest in bank fd, uob one account promo, moo moo cash plus sign up offers and ssbs?

your returns are 3-5%

i very nice, pretend its 5%

real returns -5%

you do so much financial magic tricks to lose 5% a year

you very good

stylo milo

at least it is entertaining for me to watch

inflation not a scary word

rate of money printing, maybe a bit more scary

call it the global background passive rate of wealth destruction, then maybe people will wake up

everyone knows that "inflation make money worth less over time"

few people do anything about it

just invest in things with the rate of return higher than the rate of money printing lor

easy solution to a easy problem

so what things are higher than the rate of money printing?

you are not going to like the truth

you will never own 1 btc

mathematical fact is most people will never own 1 btc

 

2 years ago it was 27k usd

 

today it is 111k usd

 

from this point onwards, the price of btc will probably run faster than any regular person can accummulate it

 

this means that almost nobody will actually ever own more than 1 whole coin 

got some ppl will own more than 1 btc la

rich ppl lor 

which is not you what

 

another way of saying it

if you set aside $1000 usd / $1300 sgd to buy btc every month over the next 111 months

 

after 9 years and 3 months of buying every month

the price of btc will be so much higher than 111k

that you still wont have 1 whole btc yet

go HAM, dont be GLAM

saw a recent video by contrarian turtle

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdlDcmcEtlM

 

HDB

Avoid cars

Market index

 

instead of

Great Looks All Mortgage

 

lol

 

great video

good in showing opportunity cost

 

2 small comments

 

first is that property flippers are leveraged so their returns are amped

 

of course when comparing full cash property vs stocks, buying property is the worse choice

but this fact is actually not common knowledge

 

but then most people buy property on leverage, and therefore the returns are amplified (must also add financing cost)

 

so not really an apples to apples comparison

but i agree with the general idea

i myself use stocks to grow my wealth, not property

 

second is that he says market index investing, but ownself portfolio all in 5 stocks

 

so indexing investing is only good for me, but not for thee? 

generally generally lah

but he exception

i also exception

then everyone exception lor

 

make joke only. i agree with mr contra turtle.

 

nowadays sinkies absd so cannot play sg property markets, i see so many going into... commercial and overseas real estate? 

 

good luck, you'll need it

interest rates dont matter

bank interest rates going down and that worries you?

that means you are a nominal thinking

bank interest rate on cash deposits does not matter

what should worry you is that no matter if savings account interest rates are 3% or 30%, you will never beat inflation with cash deposits in any of the banks

it is sad how many people do not realize this

trade wars? new "problem" same solution

tariffs and trade wars

war in ukraine, war in middle east

earthquake here, earthquake there

fire here, fire there

new president, bad president

this problem, that problem

all are the same problem

 

governments have so many problems to deal with

- higher cost of living 

- everyone wants social benefits

- ppl compraining HDBs are unaffordable 

i am a practical person

i fix my problems

higher cost of living? 

just make more money

problem solved

 

all government around the world have the same root problem and almost all have the same solution

 

the root problem is that they printed too much money last time and something is now fuck up

the solution is to print more money to unfuck the current problem

new problem? okay print more money to unfuck the problem

new problem? okay print more money to unfuck the problem

new problem? okay print more money to unfuck the problem

new problem? okay print more money to unfuck the problem

new problem? okay print more money to unfuck the problem

new problem? okay print more money to unfuck the problem

new problem? okay print more money to unfuck the problem

new problem? okay print more money to unfuck the problem

new problem? okay print more money to unfuck the problem

new problem? okay print more money to unfuck the problem

 

the eventual effect is always the same

asset prices will go up

stocks will go up

bitcoin will go up 

you think we're going into a lost decade for the usa and global growth slow downs?

well, that sounds like a big problem, agreed?

guess what the solution is

print more money to unfuck the problem

 

the problems are all the same problem, and the solution is always the same one 

 

look back in a few years and it will be obvious

talking about s&p500 investing... again

https://sgbudgetbabe.com/buying-sp500-on-sgx/

 

not sure why sgbb put out this article

i thought was misinformation and a sponsored post by state street  x sgx lol

 

s27 is shit

what is "no additional tax", while the others are 30/30/15 %?

s27 still has the 30% wht since its dom is usa

whether the tax is already deducted at fund level or witheld by broker is irrelevant

extremely misleading table

 

one point which i think would need an expert opinion on is

since s27 is still us domiciled, isnt it also subjected to us estate tax?

i believe that it is

whether an asset is liabile for estate taxes based on its domicile, not where it can be bought

 

also amundi prime usa is ireland meh?

they are luxembourg, so still 30% wht

 

voo is also not accummulating

us etfs are all distributing 

 

the amount of factually wrong info in this article should be considered criminal

 

cash? synthetic lse listed irish dom etf on ibkr (eg i500, spxs)

no wht, no estate tax, no platform fees 

srs? blackrock ishares usa on endowus

no wht, no estate tax, but have platform fees 

save 0.38% on wht, but pay 0.3% for platform fees, save 0.08% overall

but ut version is accumulating, and ut are also easier to buy and sell 

 

if poems get their hands on blackrock ishares usa, it is absolute gg for endowus

1 part of me thinks that they are bleeding aum like shit due to poems

1 part of me knows that sinkies are lazy af and scared of  poem's "bad user interface" lol

back to topic

spy and voo sg buyers are financially retarded

max wht, estate tax liable

stop listening to american finance influenzas who are playing with different rules

lagi worse if you got that spy or voo reco from a sinkie influenza

whether the investment is held in cdp or with a broker is a weak point

 

strange that her recent article had so much wrong information

the linked youtube video 7 months ago was actually good information but long winded

only missing a part about synthetics that would reduce wht from 15% to 0%

 

but i get it

sinkies damn humji

synthetics = risky, sure die and lose all the money

 

just wanted to point out that even objective info from finfluenzas not always correct

most of you dont need the liquidity

i only know a few instant withdrawals available in sg

maribank invest saveplus: $10,000 

wise interest: $17,000

chocolate finance: $20,000

wise was unlimited, but they restricted the amount lower, which is smart

instant withdrawal feature on money market funds that cost like 0.1% is a feature i would pay for

in reality, most of people dont need instant liquidity on their entire balance

most people dont realize that certain investments or lifestyle choices will turn them extremely illiquid (eg real estate and cars)

i dont know whats the opposite of a sweet spot it, but that would be fixed deposits

mediocre rates for extreme illiquidity

cash - unlimited liquidity, possibly low rates

instant withdrawals - $27k a day, enough for 99.9% of you

money market funds / tbill etfs - takes a couple days, no cap

if you need more than $27k instant liq within the day, the problem is you and your inability to forecast expenses and smartly decide where to park your cash

chocolate finance is probably solvent

still stupid though

i said it before, so no harm saying it again

"this is beyond stupid"

it is a fairly retarded product for consumers, but then again the average consumer is financially retarded

so in all fairness it is a match made in heaven

since my last post, i will correct myself to say that they are not a ponzi scheme

the chocolate finance business model is earning from the kickbacks given by funds that they allocate to

this model only exists in asia where it is legal to bribe unit trust brokers to push products

this is illegal in many countries

as a consumer, its a very convoluted way to eventually just get money market returns

i do not have an account with them and i am avoiding them

the "best" s&p500

spy, voo on ibkr

us estate tax - yes

div wht - 30% 

lionglobal infinity us, amundi prime usa

us estate tax - no

div wht - 30% 

 

 

ishares us index fund on endowus

us estate tax - no

div wht - 0%

platform fees - 0.3% pa

 (approximately replacing div wht with platform fees instead)

 

above this line... at least its not an ilp or some 1.5% pa faggot fund sold by a bank

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

below this line, good job

 

 

cspx, vuag on ibkr

us estate tax - no

div wht - 15%

 

 

spxs, i500 on ibkr

us estate tax - no

div wht - 0% 

 

 

people say synthetic replication is risky

everything is risky if you are a pussy

rip endowus

endowus main advantage was that they exclusively had amundi prime usa available for cpf-oa

now phillip poems also have, gg

the endowus extra 0.3% pa platform fee is not worth it

once ishares us index fund is also on poems, endowus is dead

their cash mgmt offering is also very weak

they cannot compete when the vehicles are already low fees and without high kickbacks

they now only threaten banks that sell faggot funds with 1.5% annual mgmt fee with 0.75% - 1% kickback and replace the high kickback with a fixed 0.3% pa platform fee

eager to see how they fight back

but most likely, they will just admit defeat 

and focus on a different segmentation instead of saying how they are the cheapest on the market

its cliche

but fees are concrete and certain - we can reduce those for instant and permanent wins

there are no fund managers, that will take your money, that can also outperform consistently

anyone that can, doesnt need to earn your fees

property vs stocks

sinkies

FUCKING

love property

could be an asian thing

could also be because 1/2 people in singapore is a property agent or closely related to one

for many years now

i intuitively know that residential property underperforms stocks while also being a pain in the ass to manage

https://youtu.be/Pv389tqpiWc?si=niNRQN_1DkG1eNDR

this video says a lot of what i want to say 

 

1st point - a lot of cost line items

it is not so simple as [ (sell price) - (buy price) ] / years held

most property investors completely fail to correctly include all costs so their PNL is always inflated

 

2nd point - compare property vs stocks

costs

effort and involvement

liquidity

1 missing line item is "wholeness"

you cannot sell 10% of a property, but you can sell 10% of your stock portfolio

 

3rd point - the "goal" of property vs stocks

(not included in the video, it is my own point)

take a moment to think about

ssd, bsd, absd, annual property tax

you realize, it is not in the governments interest to pump property prices right?

sg is even more special, since gahmen builds and provides housing to 80%

if property prices go up, it is BAD and ppl comprain about affordability 

propety has natural characteristics to be cooled down, for "social good"

property is designed to never chiong much faster than inflation 

compare and constrast to stocks

stock market got cooling measures?

got absd if you buy more stocks? got ssd if you sell within 3 years?

got annual tax on the value of your stocks?

your portfolio value go up too much, ppl will talk about it in parlaiment?

the nature of stocks is that the are designed to go up

up is always good

down is always bad

my opinion is property if you want mental comfort, buy and be happy

but you want to play pretend that property is also a good investment? go ahead lor

you probably also the type that play pretend whole life / ilps are also good products lol

note: mr chua compares his forecast with 2 scenarios

scenario 1 - renting out 1 of the dual key unit

scenario 2 - not renting out the dual key unit

but he is missing scenario 3 - renting out both the dual key units

there is another flaw he makes when comparing property vs stocks

he included interest cost

i would compare a 100% cash finance property to a stock portfolio if i wanted apples to apples

but of course

in sinkieland

who buys properties 100% in cash?

answer is: the ultra rich ppl buying GCBs

ironic cos that many of the richest ppl in the sinkieland do not WANT leverage, when they obviously have access to it

makes you wonder what these rich ppl know that the poor ppl dont 

why they so stupid dont leverage up on such a massive quantum asset?

if you so smart, you live in a GCB right?

sinkie finfluenzas and their net worths

just nice EOY, everyone posting NW

honey money sg: $1.06M

budget babe: $1M 

mm dream: $3M

STE: $3.2M

stocks n savings: $431K

snowball: $931K

live rich life free: $600K

investment machine: $422K

singaporean son: $188K

amking cents: $1.6M

dividend uncle: $1.45M

my observation:

1. a lot of SGX bias

2. a lot of focus on dividends

3. a lot of stock pickers

i disagree with SGX bias because obviously sg market sucks compared to us market

i disagree with focusing on dividends and instead focus on total returns

i disagree with stock picking, unless you have proven record of beating the market with your picks

thank you everyone for sharing your 2024 portfolios and net worth

glk genuinely wishes you all a prosperous 2025

source:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPR8Mbn1RM8

https://sgbudgetbabe.com/2024-financial-review/

https://multi-million-dream.blogspot.com/2024/12/a-new-post-after-long-hiatus.html

https://stestocksinvestingjourney.blogspot.com/2024/12/portfolio-dividend-update-28-dec-2024.html

https://stocksnsavings.blogspot.com/2024/12/portfolio-summary-for-december-2024.html

https://snowballsg.wordpress.com/2024/12/31/portfolio-dec-31-2024/

https://liverichlifefree.blogspot.com/2024/12/portfolio-update-december-2024_31.html

https://myinvestmentmachine.blogspot.com/2025/01/my-investment-portfolio-sg-end-dec-2024.html

https://justasingaporeanson.blogspot.com/2025/01/a-review-of-2024.html

https://makecentsnow.wordpress.com/2025/01/05/2024-year-in-review-and-looking-ahead-to-2025/

https://thedividenduncle.com/2025/01/07/reits-dragged-down-my-portfolio-in-2024-what-saved-it-and-my-next-move-investmentportfolio/